Post-doctoral fellow, targeting climate-smart development interventions under multiple uncertainties, World Agroforestry Centre


The World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) is an independent research institution that generates science-based 
knowledge about the complex role trees play in agricultural landscapes and rural livelihoods. As part of the 
Centre’s work to bring tree-based solutions to bear on poverty and environmental problems, researchers – 
working in close collaboration with partners – are developing new technologies, tools and policy 
recommendations for increased food security and ecosystem health. 
About the position 
Countless ‘climate-smart’ technologies are available to help farmers in Africa adapt to climate change. A 
wide range of practices has proven successful under certain conditions. However, we know that the success 
of interventions to improve livelihoods depends on a host of factors, for many of which little information is 
available and that vary significantly across time and space. Despite knowledge gaps and imperfect 
information, decisions about what interventions to promote where are on the agenda of decision-makers in 
governments, NGOs and international donor organizations daily. Decision makers need appropriate tools 
for assisting these decisions. Such tools require new approaches that adequately consider uncertainties and 
are able to capture the unclear nature of relationships between site factors on which success or failure of 
interventions depends. The incumbent will work with the decision engagement and analytics team at ICRAF 
and beyond to develop methods for targeting interventions under uncertainty, and for projecting likely 
impacts of such interventions. This will be achieved using probabilistic modeling, Bayesian networks and 
other similar approaches that do not rely on purely deterministic models of farmer reality. 
Expected outputs 
 Review of existing approaches to target interventions and support decisions under uncertainty 
 Probabilistic decision-support tools for intervention targeting and identification of metrics for impact 
 Publications in peer-reviewed journals and contribution to other communication products 
Key responsibilities 
 Review tools for modeling and decision making under uncertainty 
 Develop methods to target interventions under uncertainty 
 Develop and contribute to methodologies to forecast the impact of research for development on 
    development outcomes and impacts 
 Conduct impact projections and develop targeting recommendations for research and development 
    activities at ICRAF and elsewhere.  2
 Using value of information analysis, identify further research needs and important metrics for impact 
 Publish in peer-reviewed journals 
 Contribute to ICRAF’s communication products and resource mobilization efforts 
Qualifications and experience 
 PhD in Economics, Decision Analysis, Business Analysis, Development or related fields; Graduates in Agricultural or        Ecological subjects may be considered 
 Excellent quantitative analysis skills 
 Good understanding of Bayesian networks, Monte Carlo simulation and other approaches to 
    modeling under uncertainty 
 Advanced programming skills (preferably in R) 
 Ability to function effectively in a multicultural setting 
 Proficiency in oral and written English 
 Track record of publication in peer-reviewed journals 
Terms of offer 
ICRAF is an equal opportunity employer and offers an exciting, collegial and gender sensitive working 
environment. We believe that staff diversity promotes excellence and strongly encourage applications from 
women. This is an international position with generous terms and available for two (2) years, with the 
second year subject to favorable review after a nine (9) months’ probation period, continued relevance of the 
position and the availability of resources. The Post-Doctoral fellow will be based in Nairobi, Kenya. 
How to apply 
Go to and submit a cover letter, CV including 
publications, 1-3 articles, and contact details for three referees. 
Applications will be considered until 9th March 2014. Please note that only short-listed applicants meeting 
the above requirements will be contacted. 
Contact for more information: 
Eike Luedeling, 
Todd Rosenstock, 
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